Is Nadal done! Will Real Roger Stand up! Will Murray take over!

Postmortems are always ugly but someone's gotta do it and much as I dislike scraping fresh wounds, I think sometimes we need to do it so we can be healthier.

So I looked at some of Nadal's comments, after his US Open loss to Andy Murray and have to say that, to me they were almost Rogeresque! Let me explain what I mean.

For many months now, Roger would make comments after tournaments that I thought were kind of partial denials of reality - for example his comments after the French Open and before the Wimbledon that he was still the favorite to win Wimbledon and that grass was his best surface. While the comment was partially correct, it ignored the fact that other contenders specially Nadal was snapping at his heels - grass or no grass. Sure enough, Nadal did a Roger at Wimbledon and won the title. No denying that Roger played extremely well but no denying the end result either. I kept feeling that Roger was reluctant to acknowledge that his crown was in danger - that unlike any other time in the past four years, he was being chased very closely by Nadal and maybe a bunch of others.

Coming back to Nadal - Even though a good number of predictions were that Nadal will win USO, my reading after watching him in initial matches, was that Nadal's busy and demanding season was taking its toll on his body and he was surviving the USO matches plainly on skills and will power and not on stamina.

And now after the USO, asked if he might cut his schedule next year to avoid the match fatigue, Nadal said that "playing so many events is what enabled him to become the world No.1."

"If you want to be in the top position, do you think you have any chance if you play less? No," he said.

As you may know, next on Nadal's agenda is the Davis Cup semi-final and then the Masters Series event at Shanghai.

I think this is a potentially dangerous line of thought and a risky way of going into the next season considering that Davis cup starts within next 9 days and even though the Masters Events thankfully starts a month later, on November 9, it is still, way too short a period to recover from grueling matches. Is Nadal cutting it too fine physically, because the Australian Open then starts on January 19th.

Maybe I'm getting paranoid for nothing, after-all Nadal is supremely fit looking athlete but something to me is not right in this picture. I would rather have him skip the Davis Cup (or maybe just be a reserve for the Davis Cup), take longer rest and then go to Masters in Shanghai.

Even some of the other comments he made like, ""You know how important it was for me to win Wimbledon after two years playing the finals," Nadal said. "For sure after Wimbledon I had the big goal - Number One and Olympics and finals US Open", appear to me as unlike Nadal. Is he already sounding like Roger! Your call!

Moving on to Roger- He's the US Open Champion and winner of 13 slams and I hate to write anything that takes away from his achievements but I've got to say that even though he won the match from Andy Murray, he didn't convince me that he will rule the courts the way he used to. Many are predicting that this is the return of the old Roger - the invincible, but I'm going to wait & watch. He showed the glimpses of his old self when Andy was making mistakes but not when Andy was firing back. To me that is the difference between old and current Roger. Old Roger would make the best look like ordinary and the current Roger makes ordinary look like good! Great player no doubt but old Roger, not yet.
I do hope that he gets to at least 15 slam titles so we can wait, pant , anticipate to see if there will be a successor to his crown. To me he can easily go beyond 15 too but only if the old Roger resurrects.

Andy "Muzza" Murray - watching him up close during the US Semis and in practice matches made me think that this man could very well may displace Djokovic from # 3 position in next 6 months or so. Its not only his tenacity and good play, the man can think on his feet and play deceptive shots to fool opponents. He can cover the ground well from coast to coast and his shot arsenal is getting wider too - we have all seen him hit those running cross court forehands that are tough to handle and are winning shots more than ever before.

Djokovic - I like him but I am getting the feel that he will really have to step it up. I will keenly follow how he performs at Tennis Masters Cup Shanghai. I do want him to do those impersonations of other players. This man is genuine fun.

May the Best Player take it all.

What a Semis showdown! Fedex is back on rails, Nadal temporarily saved by rain!

Ok So I was wrong (well at least 50%) but why does it feel so right!

I know I said that Roger will reach Semis but will lose to Djokovic and here I was, sitting in the stadium and watch unfold the Semis drama while the clouds hung overhead.

Soon as Roger came into the stadium, I started pumping my fists. No longer had he served his first serve that I was screaming into the ears of people in front of me. My kids were very confused, said my son; "Dad, you wrote earlier that Roger will lose to Djokovic and here is the first serve by Federer and you are already screaming in his favor! What's the deal! We thought you didn't like Roger!

I had to correct them and tell them, look, I love Roger, I want him to break every record there is, because he's a master, BUT make no mistake, a few years from now someone younger and talented will come and attempt to break all of Roger's records and I will be cheering that guy to go all the way. I like this cycle of prepetuity, Roger should break Sampras' records and if someone more capable comes along then let the new kid break Roger's records. That's how I like it.

But I digress, I gad to explain to my son that despite that I love Roger, I don't like the current Roger - the tentative Roger, the hesitant Roger, the overanxious Roger, or simply missing the Roger that I and other fans have known for last few years. I don't like the stubborn way he is playing these days without making necessary changes, the adjustments.

I think today, Roger heard me, his fans and their prayers and came a little bit back into his own, but he was still kind of really missing, well at leats till the third set against Djokovic. He had a fair opportunity to carry the second set to the tiebreak but at 30-40 down and knowing that he must get a deuce and then win next two points, he chose to hit a shot that I have seen him over/under hit many a times this year and there it was, 7-5 in favor of Djokovic! I was getting nervous again! Will the Real Roger please stand up!

To get back a little bit, I liked how Roger came out in the first game, won it and continued to play well. Not surprisingly though, he was still over anxious on many points in the first two sets, but in the third, as Djokovic started misfiring a bit, Roger strated getting his groove back. With every game, we were seeing the Roger "the King" Federer hitting the shots with supreme confidence and finally he relieved Djokovic from his misery with a clean forehand, with the final score at 6-3 5-7 7-5 6-2 , Roger has booked his ticket to the Final.

More importantly,
- Federer is now 7-2 against Djokovic.
- This was Federer's s 33rd consecutive victory at the US Open. Can you believe, his last loss was in the 2003 (against David Nalbandian)
- If Federer wins US Open, it will be his fifth consecutive US Open trophy
- If Federer wins US Open, He will be the first man to win 5 consecutive titles at two grand slam titles ( Wimbledon and US Open)

One side fun fact of the match was that while there was some support for djokovic (I was actually surprised by that, I thought he would have zero support and will be solidly booed after his comments at the end of match with Roddick), BUT every time Roger was on the go, he got a huge cheer from the crowd. By my guess, Roger's fan outnumbered Djokovoc fans by roughly a 100o:10
As for me here's my thought;

"GO ROGER GO"

I have got to tell you, I was almost stunned when I heard the announcer say during the second set of Fedex/Novak match " Because of inclement weather, Nadal/Murray match will start right now in the Louis Armstrong stadium". I was like, "No freakin' way. I came here to watch both the matches, not half of this and half of that." Since rest of my family wanted to see Nadal and I definitely wanted to see Andy ( he was so gracious the other day when I got his autographs and asked him to pose for a foto, Andy is real cool), we reluctanly made our way to the other match.

Man, was I happy to see Andy play so well! He was calm, not trying too much extra and was on the ball. I think in the whole stadium, there were probably five of us, Andy supporters and it sounded like it was a Rafa fan convention. Everytime, Nadal would get up, go to serve, make a good return, the whole stadium would hit a high octave. It may sound silly, but even though I was outnumbered as an Andy fan, maybe 1:3000, somehow, I felt good and I think it was mainly because Andy made his racket talk. Thank the lord, that Andy won the first and then the second and put a little bit of lid on the Rafa fans. More than him, I was relieved.

I do think though, that Andy was both a bit relieved (having won two sets) and, out of focus at the start of the third set. I was little startled that, he proceeded to go 0-2 in the third and of course, right now, the score stands at 2-3 with Nadal up a break. What I dislike about that as an Andy fan, is the fact that,
- one, if you are Andy, you can't afford to be out of focus even for a fraction of a second, against world's current best player
- two, with a rain break, now there is a chance that Nadal will gather himself and unleash his missiles on Andy.

As for Nadal, he looked slightly out of sorts right from the start! Was he thinking too much, too ahead! Did he think, he will walk on the court and Andy will roll over! Was he already planning for the Finals! I don't know Man! All I saw was that he was lackluster and Andy's great play made it look very ordinary ( don't get me wrong, even an ordinary stroke from the world number one is extraordinary, but something was missing!)

There were some extended, powerful, long rallies with both guys hitting some tough, ground hugging shots but Andy got the best of, many of them. On the other hand, I was worried for Andy, for suddenly at the start of the 3rd set, he didn't have answers for the Rafa serve and that to me is a dangerous sign. As much as Rain has helped Rafa escape a NDE ( near death experience), I think, Andy needs to use this break to get his act together, he can't afford to slip up. Its Do or Die trying for him! No third option.

As for me, I'm happy, Not only Fedex is back but I'll get a chance to get back to the stadium tomorrow and see the completion of Nadal/Murray match. In fact, if the rumors are correct, my ticket will enable me to watch Cara Black & Liezel Huber battle it out against Lisa Raymond & Samantha Stosur in the Women's Doubles - Finals. Well, lets just say that I consider my $1000 spent on the tickets, really worth every penny.

US Open; Nadal out, Roger , Djokovic in Semis - Djokovic moves to Finals to meet Andy Murray

Ok I know that lots of matches are yet to be played before these predictions can come true but my observations are based on the very few matches completed and that few practice matches I got to see. Here we go;

1. Nadal - Not only will he not make the semis but he will fold up at the first hard core resistance he meets, in other words, any guy who can take him to five sets or wins the first two sets from him will defeat Rafael. Right now he's just riding on sheer will power and some great talent BUT he has no juice. He's tired and will not go beyond quarters, specially because he will end up meeting either Blake or Nalbandian in the quarters and specially if he ends up meeting Blake, he'll lose it.

2. Roger - Everyone and the media in general is going all gaga over his first win and saying that he's back on track based on how he played against Maximo Gonzales BUT I'm not buying it. He's still hitting many erratic shots, playing in a somewhat casual fashion and not closing out the points and to top it, still refuses to admit that he needs a strategy and/or game change. Even though his side of the draw should easily take him to the Semis since his true good poential opponents are Verdasco and Stepanek, I'm so unsure of him that I put him into Semis gingerly. At the moment though, I don't see him overpowering Djokovic in the Semis so that should be the end of the road for him. If however it is Andy Roddick who ends up defeating Djokovic and meeting Roger then I give Roger a 60/40 chance.

3. Djokovic - So far looking good but he's mentally a wee bit less sure than he was at the end of 07 and start of 08. The early exit from Wimbledon has definitely made a dent on his psyche and both, he and his opponents know that he is vulnerable. He does have enough though to make it through to Semis. He will be looking at some potential good opponents like Marat Safin (revenge time!), Cilic , Moya. Even the quarters could be against Andy Roddick and that will be a tough test.

4. Andy Roddick- So far I have only seen his first match and he came out looking the best of the entire lot of players, but again, even though Fabrice is a very good player, he has his on & off days so I'll give Andy 75 out of 100 for that match and that's a high rating from me. To me he's got an easier draw and than makes him potential Semis candidate. He is capable of defeating Djokovic, specially if he can take Djokovic to four or more sets. Djokovic's stamina to me is a real question mark and smart players should be able to use that fact to their advantage. Irrespective of that though, I don't see Andy winning the title.

5. AndyMurray - looking good and impressive early but not hugely impressive or let me further clarify - Andy will certainly fly into the quarters because the most tough opponent he will meet is Wawrinka and though Waw is playing well, Murray should have a slight edge. Again he's potential Semis candidate to me because he's capable of defeating Ferrer or lets say Ferrer is capable of losing to Murray. Makes Sense! To me yes, to you I don't know! Based on sheer determination he could find himself be an a very good situation.

Now couple of guys that deserve a mention
6. Monfils - Man, this guy looks good. I'm not sure how far will he go but I saw him practice, and then also his first match and he looks good. He has a tough matche coming up against Nalbandian but if he maintains his confidence he should do well. He's an emotional athlete and so it would matter that he win the first sets of his match.

7. Juan Martin del Potro - Can this man keep his winning streak running! Considering that he plays Giles Simon and then Ferrer - could this be the end of the road for him in the Open or would he continue his big strides ! An exciting player to watch for sure.

8. Cilic - Is he playing well or what! The only issue is that if he wins from Bobby Ginepri then he meets Djokovic and I'm giving Djokovic the advantage between the two.

I would have liked to mention Tsonga here but haven't seen him play at all so need to skip it but I hope he does well.

I have to end this post here, but it's on a happy note. Fedex (not Roger) just delivered my US Open Men's Semifinal tickets and boy am I excited even though I'm paying far more than the list price.

I'll share the experience of my first grand slam attendance when I get to that.
Ciao.

Nadal does a Federer, Djokovic does a Nadal and Andy is the (not so) Surprising Winner

" More things change, the more they remain same".

Federer is a OK, hard courts will favor him - Ivo Karlovic proved that wrong
Nadal couldn't be defeated in his current form- Djokovic proved that wrong
Djokovic will make a strong return after Wimbledon- Andy Murray proved that wrong

So you say Andy is the best right now - not so fast my friend.

Tennis as seen from my point of view;

Lets start with Fedex ; Federer looks far from OK.
Iis he a great player - no doubt!
Is he in his best elements - NO,
Will he win Olympics and US - can't say though you can bet that he will make the Semis in both tournaments.

Just when I thought he was getting more realistic - he actually joked that he was on a "one game winning streak" after his first match win at Cincinnati, and then he comes up with this " The bigger picture is the Olympic Games and the U.S. Open. Those are the places where I want to win." WTF!!!

Really Roger!! I mean after you lose a tournament you talk about the next one as if nothing happened in the one that you lost! As one of your fans, I am getting concerned that at this rate, if you lost Olympics and US, you will say " This was a good year but my focus is on regrouping for 2009"

I think instead of focusing on anything else, he should only focus on his confidence level - both overconfidence as well as bouts of low confidence. This may sound absurd - but he needs to make sure that he's confident of closing - closing a point, a game, a set and the match.
He needs to play tight, even play safe like how every player does including Nadal & Co., when they know that a single point can tip the match one way or the other, but since Roger refuses to do it, my assessment is that he will remain in trouble. In my mind still the greatest but still the most obstinate in not making the badly needed adjustments during a match. He seems either overconfident or starts playing over anxiously and then seems surprised that he lost! Whew!

Nadal - the guy is so much improved in his determination, his game and knowing that other players get mentally fickle when he makes those unexpected results - he's truly unbelievable. You can say so many things about this guy - how he is winning on all surfaces, how focused he is on his pursuit of number one position and how he as taken his game to next level, but there is no need. Everyone can see it clearly, so;

Does he deserve # 1 ranking - Absolutely.
Is he self-effacing and humble - Yes
but here's my thought;
Is his game as complete as Roger - I don't think so.
C'mon. don't pretend to be shocked. Roger on a good day is still ahead of Nadal, Nadal surely is snapping at the heels of Roger, in fact, he has taken Roger's # 1 position but Roger is Roger.

Djokovic - He seems to be getting his groove back. Looks better prepared and determined to retain his number # 3 position after the stunning loss to Safin in Wimbledon but his stamina is not the same as others in the top 10.
He can win his matches on skill and talent but I'm gonna say that every time a match goes to four sets or more and his opponent retains the mental poise, Djokovic can be defeated, In fact, looking at the young and veteran players, he may have tougher time retaining his # 3 position for too long.

Andy Roddick - can you step it up and make a comeback! I know it looks impossible right now, but the guy has got game. He's in a bit of Roger situation! Over Anxious most of the time.

and now to the latest sensation - Andy Murray!

Man, isn't he showing glimpses of Nadal in his game! Unbelievable returns, great passing shots, speedy running all over the court!
If anyone can truly take the tag of MOST IMPROVED Player in top 10, it has to be this kid and what I like about him is the same humble streak as Nadal - realistic in what he says!

So Andy is a great winner but I'll repeat what I said at Wimbledon time - this kid is OK when he wins the first set but when he doesn't, Lord have mercy!

Not to take away anything from him but if you watched Cin. final - you know that Djokovic in second set was trying to lose and not playing to win. Couple of good shots from Novak and Andy's body language hit a down turn. In fact it looked more and more, that it would be tough for Andy to win if Djokovic could get his breath back. Again, I think Djokovic lost rather than Andy won but in the end I was happy for the result and for Andy.

He has put in hard work and it was paid. I still think though that Andy has a long way to go - the good news is he can.

Uh Oh! What's Tennis coming to!

I mean isn't it getting exciting now - Safin defeats Djokovic in the second round of Wimbledon, we get to see an amazing match between Schuttler and Clement and then of course in the finals Federer defeats himself and hands over the championship to Nadal

Action moves to Canada and the top seeds start stumbling in the Rogers Cup like Stock market during Mortgage crisis. I knew Roger was not going to make it to the finals but second round!

Fedx was ousted in the very first match he played - who is Giles Simon anyways! Well as we know well by now, the 'Roger FeDenial amazing circus show' continues - his comments after the match were no different than his comments after Australian, French and Wimbledon losses - Sure I lost but what can I do. the other guy was playing better, and for the gem of his talks - I am focused on m y next tournament, this is all behind me.

Surely, if you are a big fan of Roger, like I am, you are in a shocking stupor.

Roger- please hear me out, one of us is drunk or smoking something really really edgy, if you say something like "I'm OK, I'll be OK, Next tournament is mine" as you have been saying all along AND I know I'm not drunk or smoking so it must be you!

I admire your guts to put everything behind you after a loss BUT wait a minute, you seem to really forget everything including the bad decision making you do in all the matches you lose.

Man, all I can say is that now the whole Tennis circuit knows, you are not be feared - why -

Because - you stick with one game plan that you come to court with and don't change anything even if your plan is falling by wayside even as your opponent starts getting aggressive.

Ok the only redeeming feature in this tournament so far is that Djokovic, Roddick, Davydenko, Gasquet and Blake are all out of the tournament but that should be a warning not a relief.

Nadal has not looked too good either but at least he's surviving on his will power and slightly improved game.

By far, Andy Murray is the one I'm really impressed with - I saw his match against Djokovic and boy - is he playing like Nadal! I loved the fact that he's learnt to hang around each volley and despite serving something like 50% first serve, he's still winning.

I'd like to think that he can win over Nadal later today but I think Nadal has a little too much motivation going in this match. If I'm not wrong, he'll earn enough points by winning the this title to become number One.

Even though right now it looks like that if Andy can walk into the match like he did against Djokovic - relaxed and confident, he could give a surprise to the Wimbledon Champ.

We shall See!